Skate's Art Investment Review

Skate’s Market Notes

The auctions in Milan this November are taking place against the backdrop of global art market euphoria. Sales in New York earlier this month confirm continued strength for proven Impressionist and Modernist artists, but they also point to recovery for a number of established Contemporary artists like Richter, Basquiat and Murakami.

While great attention is always paid to sales in New York and London, as well as in Hong Kong to a certain extent, other markets are also seeing interesting activity. What is happening in the world of Italian art, for example?

First, the market extravaganza in New York this month saw spectacular sales of works by Livorno-born Amedeo Clemente Modigliani, most notably Nu assis sur un divan (1917), which sold for $68,962,500 – a record for the artist. With this month’s sales, Modigliani has overtaken Vincent van Gogh as the world’s 9th most valuable artist on the basis of total auction sales. So far, Modigliani has proven to be a strong investment case; repeat auction sales of his works consistently achieve positive investment returns (on average, 11-13% on an annualized basis).

Aside from Modigliani, two other Italian artists (Boldini and Morandi) enjoyed positive returns on the repeat sales of their works that took place in New York earlier this month.
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Skate’s Art Investment Review

Welcome to the October issue of Skate’s Art Investment Review. In order to best use this publication, please note that our coverage is focused on the universe of 635 global artists whose artwork is represented in Skate’s Top-5000 list, which is comprised of the world’s most valuable art, based on auction prices. To learn more about Skate’s Top-5000 and the artworks and artists represented, go to www.skatepress.com.

In this issue of Skate’s Art Investment Review we focus on the most important September results as well as on major upcoming Sotheby’s and Christie’s auctions:

• 20th Century Chinese Art
• Contemporary Asian Art
• Fine Chinese Paintings
• Impressionist & Modern Art, Including Russian and Latin American Art
• Important Chinese Art: The Collection of a Parisian Connoisseur, Part II
• Contemporary Art Evening Auction
• Contemporary Art Day Auction
• Christie’s Postwar day and evening auctions

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Prior to the Lehman collection sale, Skate’s predicted that if the work “We’ve got Style, (the Vessel Collection – blue/green)” did not sell, it would be a nail in the coffin of Damien Hirst’s art market. Nailed in he is—the failure to find a buyer for Hirst’s work, number one for the auction in terms of estimate range, is a spectacular end to the change in demand for Hirst’s artwork over the last decade. This market, which was estimated at a value in the hundreds of millions of dollars, is now officially illiquid for prices over $1m (and probably over $400-500k) apiece. Skate’s thinks it was a big mistake by Hirst and his dealers/advisers not to support Sotheby’s auction on Saturday and to let the headliner lot go unsold. The auction has brought opposite fortunes to “Untitled 1,” the work of Julie Mehretu.

In anticipation of the auction Skate’s wrote:

“Forty-year-old Julie Mehretu is among the youngest represented in the sale, yet her work is priced next to Hirst’s as the most valuable lot of the sale, with a Sotheby’s range of $600-800k. Should it get sold within this range that will constitute an enormous success story for a piece of art created as recently as 2001 and immediately sold to the Lehman collection from the primary market. Going forward, it will also probably make Mehretu the most interesting and value-creating artist to watch.”

Well, Mehretu’s work outperformed and has become the most valuable lot based on auction results. Skate’s welcomes this new queen of the contemporary market and perhaps the hottest star to watch during the coming art-market season. We can already imagine the sale of her multiple works at Frieze and Art Basel Miami.

Read the complete analysis of results from the Lehman collection auction and predictions for coming auctions in our October newsletter, to be released later this week.

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