Poly: In Start of Global Expansion, a Quiet Power Establishes Permanent New York Presence

May 15, 2012

Beijing Poly International Auction Co. Ltd is not even seven years old, but it is the world’s third largest auction house, selling RMB 12.2 billion worth of art (USD 1.9 billion) in 2011. It remains in the third spot so far this year, trailing behind Sotheby’s and Christie’s in terms of trading volume.

Skate’s covered the rise of Poly on July 26, 2011, and this week we learned the latest updates from the company concerning their strategy and vision going forward.

So far Poly’s business has been squarely focused on Asia, specifically on China where the absolute majority of its art-buying clients reside. The firm acknowledges that its meteoric rise could have not been possible without backing from its parent, China Poly Group Corporation, a diversified state-owned holding group with commercial interests in industries ranging from arms to culture. This support, which includes funding for the Poly Art Museum—the largest corporate museum in China—has helped to build up domestic demand for the Chinese artworks that are Poly’s primary offering. It is also helping Poly to achieve its first strategic objective, which has been to put Beijing on the map as one of the world’s art trading capitals.

Poly currently trades in four auction categories: ancient Chinese art and calligraphy, pre-modern art and calligraphy, contemporary art, and antiques. It does well in each of these categories, eating away market share from the world’s major auction houses in the Chinese art segment (the fastest growing globally) and efficiently blocking attempts of smaller rivals like Philips with their BRIC strategy to venture in the category.

Poly’s strategy was timed perfectly. The surge of Chinese art acquisitions could have brought a bounty of revenue and profitability growth to international auctioneers, but instead thanks to efforts from Poly and smaller auctions like China Guardian (incidentally, a name that is itself very characteristic of a Chinese art market strategy) it helped to create a powerful domestic art auction industry in the emerging world’s superpower. This new Chinese industry now intends to go global; China Guardian was the first to set up operations in New York, and Poly has just followed.

Beijing Poly International Auction Co. Ltd is smart in its approach to global expansion. It began by educating the global art market community about the strength of its domestic distribution capabilities for Chinese art. Just a few years ago when Christie’s wanted to auction famous fountainhead bronzes in Paris it ran into considerable controversy as official China attempted to block the sale. The Chinese now put forward purely economic arguments for consignors—why consign important Chinese works to global auctions if Chinese auctioneers offer better sales channels? Poly has spared no expense in proving this point, sending its marketing team to European cities this summer to educate potential consigners about the company’s distribution capabilities. Poly intends to play aggressively in New York as well, having purchased real estate for its New York headquarters on West 44th Street and establishing a fully staffed office to focus on U.S. expansion, specifically the sourcing of Chinese material from the vast community of U.S.-resident Chinese and American collectors of Chinese art, clearly the largest international source of Chinese works of art.

This strategy will work. Poly should be recognized as a lasting and increasingly global force in the international auction business. Move ahead four or five years, and Beijing Poly International Auction Co. Ltd will greatly dominate the global trade in Chinese art by adding a strong client roster of international consigners to its domestic Chinese buy-side clientele, the firm’s original competitive advantage. This growth will set the stage for Poly to challenge the high-end market oligopoly of Sotheby’s and Christie’s. Unless the powerful duo of global auctions established in the 18th century finds a way to defend its market position and discover new sources of growth, the seven year-old Chinese rival will increasingly depress Sotheby’s and Christie’s equity story well before it starts hiring away key employees in New York.

We continue to expect that Poly will go public soon. Although Beijing Poly International Auction Co. Ltd officials declined to comment on the matter, it really does make sense for Poly to float its shares as it starts Western expansion. It could benefit from exceptionally favorable valuations for art stocks, as was recently proven by the IPOs of Abbey House in Poland and Weng Fine Art in Germany. That said, the art market is not the place where one necessarily needs to be transparent about ownership. We just observed Frieze get away with its entry into the New York art fair market without even being asked about the funding sources behind the lavish Randall Island extravaganza. Frieze is notoriously secretive about its beneficial owners, and in that context Poly can well be called a model of transparency: it is a Chinese government sponsored international expansion of the art trade and Chinese cultural mission executed by a Beijing-headquartered firm beneficially owned by Chinese state. It’s as simple as that. Now, the company is in New York.

To read the full article with data, please click here.


Last Night’s All-Time Record: Edvard Munch’s The Scream Sells for $119.9 Million, Six Other Works Fetch Prices Exceeding $10 Million

May 3, 2012

Since the official announcement that Edvard Munch’s pastel painting The Scream would be presented for auction at Sotheby’s, it is difficult to imagine a time when there have been more expert predictions, social discussions and media coverage dedicated to a single work of art. The Scream obviously generated a great deal of interest on the part of top buyers from around the globe, as the Sotheby’s sale saw approximately seven collectors competing for ownership. As a result, the artwork’s final price nearly tripled the modest starting bid of $40 mln to bring $119.9 mln, the highest figure ever paid for a work of art at a public auction. While the buyer has yet to be announced, the money is stated to fund several Norwegian real estate projects.

Skate’s is particularly proud to announce that our preliminary estimate for the artwork provided to The Wall Street Journal proved to be correct. On April 26, we were quoted as forecasting a final sale price of $92.5–123.4 mln on the basis of an accurate peer group assigned to the work and the irrational premium that we calculated.

The full article can be found at the following link:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303592404577364321881780342

With all of the excitement surrounding the sale that made history, it is easy to overlook the fact that several other significant sales that took place during the past couple of days at Christie’s and Sotheby’s, including six others that sold for prices exceeding $10 mln.

To read our full issue of Skate’s Market Notes, including data, please click here.


Monthly Art Investment Ideas – May 2012

May 1, 2012

This issue of Skate’s Art Investment Review is dedicated to the market for sculpture and focuses on the major upcoming May auctions at Christie’s and Sotheby’s.

In this Issue:

  • April Entries to Skate’s Top 5000
  • Repeat Sales Forecast for May
  • Premium Segment of the Sculpture Market: Cherry Picking Investments
  • Top 5 Art Investment Ideas for May 2012
    • Constantin Brancusi, Prométhée
    • Alexander Calder, Un noir et en jaune
    • Auguste Rodin, Le baiser, 1ère reduction
    • Henry Moore, Reclining figure
    • Alberto Giacometti, Buste de Diego

To read the full report, please click here.


Monthly Art Investment Ideas – April 2012

April 1, 2012

In this Issue:

  • Chinese Art Market Research Based on Skate’s Top 5000
  • Entries to Skate’s Top 5000 in March 2012
  • Top 5 Art Investment Ideas for April 2012
    • Zhang Daqian, Guan Yin
    • Zhang Daqian, Lotus in the wind
    • Wu Guanzhong, Victoria Falls
    • Wu Guanzhong, Snow mountain in spring
    • Zao Wou-­‐Ki, 25.06.86

To read the full report, please click here.


Monthly Art Investment Ideas – March 2012

March 7, 2012

In this Issue:

  • February Art Market Results
    • The Rise of the British and German Art Markets
    • Top 20 Entries to Skate’s Top 5000
    • Top 20 Repeat Sales in February
  • Latest Insights into Skate’s Art Stocks Index Constituent Companies
    • Collectors Universe: Trip Across the Pacific
    • Artprice – Future Leader of Online Auctioning?
    • First Turbulence at Abbey House
  • Skate’s Art Stocks Index

Please click here to read the full issue.


Publicly Traded Art Dealer: Let’s Try Once More… Weng Fine Art AG Listed on Frankfurt Stock Exchange, Achieves 29.4% Single Day Price JumpWeng Fine Art AG Included in Skate’s Art Stock Index Effective January 3

January 3, 2012

The proud city of Krefeld, located in the heartland of German manufacturing, lost its last publicly traded company on March 16, 2009 when the locally headquartered industrial conglomerate Jagenberg AG decided to go private. Had the citizens of Krefeld been asked what industry would return them to the global map of listed companies, common answers would likely have focused on new technologies, high precision manufacturing, top quality steel, chemicals, new materials and other areas for which North Rhine-Westphalia is famous. Such suggestions would have been wrong, however, as the Krefeld based company that went public today is an art dealer.

Although unexpected for Krefeld, North Rhine-Westphalia is not necessarily a strange place to host a successful art dealer. “The old money” German land is rivaled only by Bavaria in terms of wealth concentration and significant art collections. Krefeld is a short 20-minute drive from Düsseldorf, a vibrant global city of culture. The area is certainly a fertile ground for building an art business, and Weng Fine Art AG has clearly seized a major opportunity.

Please click here to read the full article with data.


For Return-­Focused Collectors, November Auctions Make a Strong Case for Blue Chip Living Artists

November 14, 2011

Following October’s strong auction results, sales in November brought still more record prices, reflecting the robust conditions on the global art market. Successful sales of Impressionist and Modern art, which turned out more favorably for Sotheby’s than for Christie’s this time, were followed by a vast offering of Contemporary art from both leading auction houses. Apart from the numerous new records that were set for individual artists’ markets and mediums during these sales, the auctions’ repeat sales results and the impressive investment return figures deserve special focus, as they reflect even better the health of the market.

During the first two days of November, Skate’s Top 5000 saw 43 new entries from Sotheby’s and Christie’s Impressionist and Modern art sales; the total trading volume of these works stood at $277.7 mln. Eleven of these entries were repeat sales, which saw an incredibly high average effective rate of return (ERR) of 10.16%. The weighted average ERR for Skate’s Top 5000 artworks now stands at 4.88% on an annualized basis, which is an all-time high….

Please click here to read the full article with data.


Is There a Better Business Model for the Art Trade than the Auction House? Yes, There Is!

November 10, 2011

The traditional mismatch between Sotheby’s robust auction volumes and the firm’s third-quarter loss-making financials, which were released at the same time (this week, actually), causes us to pose a legitimate question: while the auction has clearly been the best art industry business model to date (eight of the 13 constituent companies in Skate’s Art Stock Index have art auctions contributing to at least part of their economics), one may wonder if there is a better way to make money in the art industry. Can a company do better than living from one peak season to another, losing money between auctions and staking a significant part of its fortune on a single week of trade several times a year?

Skate’s believes that yes, there is a better model out there. It is currently practiced in the low-key world of collectibles and has not yet migrated to fine art market. The fine art market would be better off if it did.

Please click here to read the full article.


Auction Houses Aim to Sell Art at Significantly Higher Prices, Supporting Auction Activity with a Higher Proportion of Guaranteed Bids

October 31, 2011

Skate’s Market Notes

On November 1, 2011 Skate’s will release its monthly report for November, which will focus on the major auctions scheduled for this week. Below is a short preview of our key findings:

  1. Four auction sessions in total (two each at Sotheby’s and Christie’s: Impressionist & Modern and Contemporary art) scheduled for this week are valued at between $822.5 million (at the low estimate of all lots) and $1,164.7 million (high estimate). The estimated mid-point value of all lots to be offered at these four auctions is $993.6 million (N.B. all values are before the buyer’s premium).
  2. Given that the number of lots in the auction catalogues is roughly the same as it was at the same time last year, the increase in value of the artworks offered, or, rather, the increase in the suggested sell price of the world’s most valuable art brought to the market by auctioneers this year, is notable. On a like-for–like basis the auction catalogues aim to sell 17.6% higher at the low end of the estimate range, 15.9% higher at the high end and 16.6% higher at the mid-point.
  3. The more generous art pricing by auction houses is also confirmed by the very rich implied effective rate of return (ERR) during repeat sales, i.e., those artworks that are returning to auction rooms after previous auction sales. Skate’s November report will profile five such repeat sales and list an additional seven artworks with estimated ERR ranges. The mid-point expected ERR on repeat sales will, if realized, significantly increase Skate’s Top 5000 average of 4.6% per annum. Certain works by Shishkin, Leger and Derain are particularly richly priced, implying double-digit annualized ERRs for their sellers.
  4. This fall, auction houses will get the best of both worlds by combining their private dealing business model with the auction house format. In working with their best clients, auctioneers have managed to significantly increase the proportion of lots with guaranteed bids in their catalogues. They have done so without significantly increasing their own financial exposure, as they have largely relied on third-party bids. In the more risky Contemporary art auctions both Sotheby’s and Christie’s will begin their sales with more than a third of the offered volume covered by guaranteed bids at the low (or lower) estimate level. This is a remarkable change in comparison to the same auctions a year earlier—Sotheby’s share of lots with guaranteed bids (calculated at the low end of estimate range) jumped from 13.1% for November 2010 auctions to 35.2% for the same auctions in 2011; for Christie’s the figure rose from 13.5% for 2010 to 37.9% in 2011.
  5. Where the two auction houses diverge is in their strategy regarding the Impressionist & Modern art catalogues: Christie’s now has 11.1% of lots covered with guaranteed bids (10.3% last year) and Sotheby’s has none (8% last year). It will be interesting to see whether this strategy will produce materially better results for Christie’s Impressionist sale this week.

To read the full report, please click here.


First October sales results: Christie’s triumphs in contemporary art; Sotheby’s dominates Italian sales

October 18, 2011

Of all the contemporary sales that took place in London during the week of the Frieze Art Fair, Christie’s results most certainly place the auction house in the leading position. The results of Christie’s evening sale on October 14, which saw a total trading volume of $59,896,712, were double those of its closest follower Sotheby’s, which brought $28,028,014 in sales. Nearly half of Christie’s lots sold above their estimate ranges, with the most impressive result of the week achieved by German artist Gerhard Richter’s Kerze (Candle). With a record-setting final price of $16.5 mln, it sold well above its pre-auction high estimate of $14 mln. The previous record for a work by Richter was set by another Kerze (Candle), which sold at Sotheby’s in 2008 for $15.7 mln.

Along with contemporary sales, the two leading auction houses also held sales of Italian art. The Italian sale turned out to be more successful for Sotheby’s, and its results even exceeded those of its contemporary evening sale. Sotheby’s Italian sale totaled $34,085,892, slightly more than the $27,652,992 that was achieved at Christie’s. It is worth noting that many lots significantly exceeded their estimates and entered Skate’s Top 5000, which currently has a threshold price of $2 mln. Of the 14 total works that entered Skate’s Top 5000 in October, six were by Italian artists.

To read the full article with data, click here.


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